VINACHEM

The United States' tariff policy under President Donald Trump is not only straining its relationship with India; it could also trigger a fundamental shift in the geopolitical and economic balance of Asia.

Experts suggest that worsening US-India ties could drive New Delhi closer to Beijing, and even into China-led trade blocs, hastening the emergence of Asia as the world's dominant economic powerhouse.

India has been a key member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the US, Japan and Australia, a grouping widely seen as a counterweight to China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. But trade tensions are testing that alignment.

Washington's tariffs on Indian goods have soured diplomatic relations, raising the possibility that India may scale back its Quad engagement, or even reconsider its membership if frictions intensify.

At the centre of speculations lies the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest free trade pact, led by China. RCEP's members include the 10 ASEAN nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam; as well as Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

Together, they account for a substantial share of global trade. India walked away from RCEP negotiations in 2019 under pressure from the domestic industry and concerns about Chinese imports. But worsening ties with Washington could prompt a revisit.

If India joins, the economic implications would be vast. The Asian economy, already worth around $40 trillion, could gain unprecedented momentum, with China's geopolitical influence surging and US sway in the region diminishing.

Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, sees this as part of a broader historical correction.

"From the year 1 to the year 1820, for 1,800 out of the last 2,000 years, the two largest economies of the world have always been those of China and India," he told Current Affairs Magazine.

"The last 200 years of Western domination of world history have been a major historical aberration, and all aberrations come to a natural end. It's perfectly natural to see the return of China and India," he notes.

Mahbubani emphasises that both China and India have achieved their resurgence by adopting and adapting to Western economic models, particularly free trade, something the US is now retreating from.

"Paradoxically, at a time when China... is discovering the virtue of free trade agreements, the US is walking away from them," he said, warning that "all efforts to stop the rise of China by the US will fail."

Kent E Calder of Johns Hopkins University describes RCEP's 2022 launch as "a milestone in the story of a returned Asia". He links the region's growing clout to both China's economic ascent and the post-Soviet geopolitical realignment. "China's rise... shows it is right at the heart of this global transformation," he said.

This transformation is already reshaping global living standards. Mahbubani points to the extraordinary growth of Asia's middle class: from just 150 million people in China, India, and ASEAN combined in 2000 to 1.5 billion in 2020, with projections of nearly 3 billion by 2030.

"Never before in human history have we seen such a massive advancement of the human condition," he noted.

Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies at King's College London, says the shift is as much about perception as it is about economics.

"China as a winner; that's a far trickier proposition" for the West, he told Media Studies Asia. Once seen as "relatively backward and marginal", China now stands poised to overtake the US as the largest economy within a decade, retaining its political system while delivering growth comparable to capitalist economies.

Brown argues that free trade deals with China could be mutually beneficial, though politics remains a barrier for countries like the UK that are aligned with Washington. "If our economy is very compromised... then I think we're going to be very pragmatic," he said.

Pragmatism may be exactly what is driving India's recalculation.

For New Delhi, deeper engagement with RCEP could open vast markets and strengthen ties with Asia's economic heavyweights — even if it means drifting from the US-led security framework.

Huiyao Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization, is unequivocal, "Asia will lead the future and the imperative to cooperate with Asia has become very strong and very powerful."

That imperative may be accelerated not by Asian initiatives alone, but by Washington's own policies. Mahbubani points out that China's early economic boom was achieved through close cooperation with the US — a model the US now seems unwilling to apply again.

"The best way for the US to regenerate its economic growth... is not to try and bring down China, but to work with China," he said.

Instead, tariffs and trade barriers risk pushing key partners like India into Beijing's orbit. The geopolitical consequences could be profound: a stronger, more integrated Asia, a diminished US role in the region, and the solidification of a multi-polar global order with Asia at its centre.

If history is any guide, such a shift would not be unprecedented, merely a return to the global balance that existed for most of the last two millennia.

As Mahbubani put it, "It's perfectly natural to see the return of China and India." The question is whether US policy will hasten that return.