VINACHEM

Sweeping tariffs across a range of goods entering the US come into effect Aug. 7, hampering global trade and upending markets for key trading partners as US President Donald Trump delivered on threats to impose higher import duties.

The deadline marks the end of a four-month pause Trump placed on his "reciprocal" tariffs, a series of new duties ranging between 10% and 50% placed on goods from nearly every country around the world, announced April 2.

The tariffs have many exemptions, notably including critical metals and energy products.

However, the implementation of the duties is set to dent global trade, with knock-on effects across commodities.

Below, reporters from Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assess the cross-sectoral implications.

Fertilizers

Ammonia exports to the US from the world's largest supplier, Trinidad and Tobago, face duties of 15%. The US is a net ammonia importer, though it has growing domestic production capacity. US imports from Trinidad were already down 35% year over year to 358,000 mt in January to June. Shipments from the country to Europe are likely to rise, traders said.

Ammonia CFR US Gulf Coast prices have risen to $495/mt as of Aug. 6, up from a recent low of $370/mt at the start of June.

With traditional US fertilizer suppliers facing a 10% blanket import tariff, several market players anticipate a surge in Russian nitrogen imports, as the country was not included in the latest round of tariffs approved by the Trump administration.

Agriculture

US and Indonesian government representatives were still negotiating lower tariffs on palm oil a day before the duty hike came into effect. The two countries signed a reciprocal trade framework agreement July 22, in which a 19% levy was to be applied on Indonesian imports.

Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil producer, and the US imported 1.9 million mt of palm oil over the marketing year of 2023-24 (July-June), making it the fifth largest importer globally, the US Foreign Agricultural Service said in a June report.

A 50% rate on Indian imports impacts key Indian agri-food and processing segments, such as shrimp, rice, guar gum, processed pulses, spices and plant proteins -- commodities that rely on competitive pricing and tight logistics into US ports.

The recent 50% tariff makes it challenging for shrimp from India to enter the US market. US imports account for around half of the country's $5 billion shrimp industry.

India has long maintained steep import barriers on US-origin grain, dairy, and ethanol, including tariff-equivalent barriers on ethanol, 30%-50% on whey, cheese, and milk powder and stringent SPS norms and labeling rules on corn, poultry, and soymeal.

Oil, gas, chemicals

Crude oil, refined products and natural gas imports are exempt from blanket tariffs, but markets remain exposed to demand risks linked to links to inflationary pressures, rising government debt and weak consumer spending.

Oil market forecasters have been cautiously upgrading their demand outlooks after a series of trade deals have cut headline tariffs from their initial levels and helped stave off recession risks. However, consumption in key growth markets has stalled.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts revised down a full-year refined product demand to 640,000 b/d from 870,000 b/d, reflecting weaker-than-expected consumption in the US and China as well as emerging economies exposed to macro pressure.

Brent crude oil plunged 19% within the week after Trump first unveiled the tariffs on April 2, taking prices to four-year lows. ICE Brent front-month crude futures were trading within a $66.6-$67.7/b range on Aug. 7, broadly stable day over day.

Aggressive tariffs on India have also sapped demand momentum in one of one of the world's largest growth hubs, seeing consumption increases slow to a trickle over recent months, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA downgraded its full-year oil forecasts for India by 90,000 b/d for 2025 in its monthly oil market report in July, before tariffs were later doubled to 50%.

Some countries, including EU members, Japan and South Korea, have agreed to procure US LNG to bolster their side of the trade balance and potentially evade Trump's tariffs while securing their energy supply.

Multinational chemical manufacturers are concerned with indirect impacts on the economy and demand, as buyers adopt a cautious approach.

Metals

In February, under Section 232, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, from March 12, including key downstream products. He then doubled these tariffs to 50%, effective June 4.

Some regions have attempted to lower these tariffs as part of trade deals with the US. In May, the US agreed to drop import taxes on the UK and rather create a quota as part of a bilateral trade deal, but the original 25% tariffs remained as details of the deal are being worked out.

In late July, the US and EU agreed on 15% import tariffs, floating the idea of establishing tariff rate quotas for EU steel and aluminum exports, although for now, the current 50% tariffs remain.

Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Northern Europe at Eur570/mt ex-works Ruhr Aug. 6, up 2% since the start of 2025.

The Platts spot 99.7% P1020 US Aluminum Transaction Premium was assessed at 72 cents/lb plus London Metal Exchange cash, delivered Midwest, net-30-day payment terms, on Aug. 6, more than tripling since the start of 2025.

The US imposed a 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products on Aug. 1, while excluding less refined materials like copper ores, concentrates and cathodes.

Platts assessed the daily clean copper concentrate price at $2,584/mt CIF China Aug. 7, up 14% since the start of 2025.

The policy ordered the Department of Commerce to take steps to force a quarter of input for refined copper, such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes and anodes to be produced and sold in the US starting in 2027. The amount increases to 30% in 2028 and 40% in 2029.

Trump also directed the Commerce Secretary to expand the tariff to more derivative copper products within 90 days of the proclamation.

The tariffs follow months of speculation surrounding the finer details of the US trade policy on copper. In recent months, a surge of copper imports flooded the US, fueled by higher domestic copper prices as traders sought to get ahead of the anticipated tariffs. The surge has created huge US copper inventories, which will now be available for export.

Several other metals are exempted under the country-specific tariff rates and will not face import duties. These include zinc, nickel, cobalt and gold. Coal is also exempt from the tariffs.