VINACHEM

Professor Carl Thayer, a leading expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defence Force Academy (University of New South Wales), has affirmed that after 80 years of national development and reform, Vietnam is emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia.

Prof. Thayer, in a recent interview granted to Vietnam News Agency marking Vietnam’s 80th National Day, praised the country's economic transformation since the Đổi Mới (Renovation) process.

Despite the considerable impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam has demonstrated a strong recovery, with GDP growth rising from 5.3% in 2023 to nearly 7.1% in 2024. The government targets 8% growth in 2025, aiming for double-digit growth in the coming years.

The goal, Prof. Thayer said, would be achievable if Vietnam effectively leverages foreign investment and exports – the two key drivers of growth.

In his view, core export sectors such as garments and mobile phones have helped Vietnam strengthen its position in global supply chains. The country is also pushing to enhance competitiveness by advancing technology, fostering international partnerships, and developing a high-quality workforce.

To avoid the middle-income trap, Vietnam is focusing on diversifying its economy, shifting toward high-value and technology-driven industries, and promoting sustainable growth.

Another strategic move is the restructuring of local government systems in 34 provinces and cities, officially implemented on July 1, 2025. This reform, Prof. Thayer said, enables more efficient resource use and accelerates national development.

Regionally, as an active and responsible member of ASEAN, Vietnam, with its growing capabilities, is well-positioned to contribute more significantly to the bloc and potentially take on a leadership role.

However, he also cautioned that Vietnam remains vulnerable to global economic fluctuations due to its dependence on international trade. He recommended stepping up reforms in the domestic market, boosting exports, increasing savings and consumption, and expanding into new markets while staying agile amid shifting global policies.

In 2024, Vietnam’s GDP hit US$476.3 billion, placing it 4th in ASEAN, just ahead of the Philippines and after Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore. In 2025, its GDP is projected to exceed US$500 billion, ranking it among Asia’s top 15 largest economies at 12th place and 4th in Southeast Asia.

According to Seasia Stats, using IMF-backed projections, Vietnam is expected to rank as the 33rd largest economy in the world by GDP in 2025.