VINACHEM

The US government has added copper, potash and silicon to its draft list of critical minerals, in the most significant overhaul since the it was first published in 2018.

The update, mandated every three years under the Energy Act of 2020, follows the 2022 version and now includes 54 minerals. Six were proposed for addition — copper, silicon, potash, silver, lead and rhenium — while two, tellurium and arsenic, were removed.

Copper and silicon were included because of the severe economic consequences that supply disruptions could trigger in refined forms, Kendra Russell, chief of staff, US Geological Survey (USGS) said.

Lead and rhenium, which narrowly missed the 2022 cutoff, were added under the new methodology.

Potash was also included after updated modelling flagged the risks of potential trade barriers from major suppliers, particularly Canada. Silver was added to hedge against a low-probability but high-impact disruption scenario in Mexico.

Tellurium was dropped as the US has shifted from net importer to exporter following increased domestic production. Arsenic was removed after revised data showed Peru, not China, is the leading producer, lowering the risk of supply disruption.

Three types of minerals

For the first time, critical minerals are divided into three risk categories: high, elevated and moderate. The new methodology also considers the economic fallout of supply shocks and highlights “single points of failure,” where reliance rests on a sole domestic producer.

The assessment spans 84 mineral commodities, 402 industries and more than 1,200 scenarios, which the USGS says offers a more realistic and usable framework for policymakers.

“Minerals-based industries contributed over $4 trillion to the US economy in 2024, and with this methodology we can pinpoint which industries may feel the greatest impacts of supply disruptions,” USGS acting director Sarah Ryke said.

She noted the new approach also helps see where strategic domestic investments or international trade relationships may help mitigate risk to individual supply chains.

The 2025 draft underscores how evolving market conditions and new data are reshaping Washington’s view of supply vulnerabilities. The final list will be published after a 30-day period of public comment.