VINACHEM

General Secretary To Lam’s 2045 pledge sets a reform mandate: law-based markets, higher productivity, and unleashed innovation.

“Looking to the future, our Party has set the goal that by 2045, on the 100th anniversary of the nation’s founding, Vietnam will be a powerful, prosperous and happy country. This is the aspiration of the entire people, a solemn oath before History and our People.”

General Secretary To Lam emphasized this in his address at the ceremony marking the 80th National Day. That oath rang out as a firm affirmation, a pledge before history, a generational compact between today and tomorrow.

To turn aspiration into reality, Vietnam must embark on a determined new phase of reform: moving beyond command-and-control administration to build a development order grounded in transparent laws and the objective rules of a market economy.

A proud journey

For half of the nation’s 80 years since independence, Vietnam’s path was bound to valiant yet painful struggles for independence and reunification. Today’s peace and sovereignty must be engraved in the memory of every generation.

Nearly four decades after the 6th Party Congress (1986), the country has changed fundamentally. From a poor, closed economy, Vietnam has become dynamic and deeply integrated into the global community. The poverty rate has fallen from over 50% to about 1%. From food shortages, Vietnam has become one of the world’s leading exporters of rice and agricultural products. A depleted, centrally planned economy has given way to an open one that participates in many free trade agreements while contributing actively to the United Nations’ sustainable development programs.

These are major achievements, but they are only a foundation. Vietnam cannot be complacent when a considerable gap remains with the region’s advanced economies.

History offers perspective. According to the Vietnam 2035 Report, in 1820 Vietnam’s economy was larger than the combined economies of the Philippines and Myanmar, one-and-a-half times Thailand’s, with income per capita on par with the world average.

According to the World Bank, by 2025 Vietnam’s per-capita income is projected to surpass 5,000 USD, about 35% of the global average, ranking 119th worldwide. The nation’s GDP accounts for roughly 0.4% of global output.

Meanwhile, within just a few decades, East Asian economies such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, and Singapore in Southeast Asia, have risen to developed status.

After 40 years of Doi Moi, we missed the 2020 “modernization” milestone. The lesson is clear: without faster, deeper reforms, we risk being left behind.

Major challenges

The demographic dividend is closing. Vietnam has only about a decade left with its highest share of working-age population before rapid aging sets in. This is a decisive window: seize it and the country will surge ahead; miss it and we may face the “getting old before getting rich” trap.

Old growth drivers are fading. Advantages in low-cost labor, capital accumulation, and resource extraction have waned. Many large investments remain inefficient, and growth built on natural resource exploitation has left heavy environmental consequences.

At the same time, deeper international integration forces Vietnam to compete head-on. Without stronger national competitiveness, the risk of losing on home turf is real. The economy cannot rely forever on FDI, and Vietnamese workers cannot remain at the lowest rungs of global value chains.

From commands to rules

In wartime, orders can be life-or-death. A moment’s hesitation can cost lives and decide a campaign’s fate. The entire nation moved as one, with discipline as a decisive strength.

In peace, however, society cannot operate under administrative commands. The economy must obey objective laws: supply and demand, value, competition, and profit. Law must be the supreme instrument to regulate behavior, protect property rights, and create a level playing field for all economic actors.

The 2013 Constitution affirmed freedom to conduct business in sectors not prohibited by law - an important step forward. Yet the legal system remains cumbersome and overlapping, with contradictory, even unlawful provisions. Crucially, the allocation of land, capital, and resources still relies largely on administrative mechanisms rather than market principles.

When market rules are not respected, social costs rise. Small and medium-sized enterprises face hurdles in accessing resources, while privileged groups reap benefits. Markets are distorted, corruption proliferates, productivity stagnates, and the economy grows slowly.

Most importantly, resources are neither allocated nor used efficiently, as we have witnessed.

The road to prosperity

To fulfill the 2045 oath, institutional reform is a prerequisite. Vietnam must build a fully fledged market economy that operates transparently according to objective rules.

First, productivity growth must be the central mission. To reach high-income status by 2045, GDP must post double-digit growth for a sustained period. Yet labor productivity remains low, with 33% of workers still in agriculture. The solution is bold restructuring: shift labor into industry and services, secure property rights, and end command-based resource allocation.

In parallel, the private sector must be affirmed as a pillar of the economy. A truly level playing field is vital for Vietnamese firms to compete and grow. We cannot allow a system where “connections mean survival” to persist.

A powerful wave of entrepreneurship should be encouraged with an ecosystem of venture funds, venture banks, and startup support centers. The success of startups must be tied to the nation’s success.

Innovation must be a long-term driver. Vietnam needs a national innovation system that propels both enterprises and research institutes to pursue new technologies and products, rather than stopping at assembly and processing.

Above all, institutions must be reformed at the root. Policy must rest on market principles; property rights - especially land - must be inviolably protected; accountability and checks on power must be strengthened; citizens’ rights and access to information must be guaranteed; and the press’s oversight role must be fully exercised.

We should internalize the high-level requirements set out in the 13th Party Congress and recent congresses: comprehensively and synchronously the institutions of a socialist-oriented market economy; create an enabling environment to mobilize, allocate, and use resources efficiently; and promote investment, production, and business.

At the same time, maintaining macroeconomic stability - emphasized by the Congress - is crucial in the current context, because only stability enables development.

The 13th Congress also stresses boldly renewing the growth model, restructuring the economy, accelerating industrialization and modernization; focusing on infrastructure and urban development; advancing rural economies tied to new countryside building; prioritizing resources for rural, mountainous, and ethnic minority infrastructure; driving national digital transformation and the digital economy based on science, technology, and innovation; and raising productivity, quality, efficiency, and competitiveness while integrating domestic and international markets in a balanced, effective way.

Four recent Politburo resolutions (57, 59, 66, 68) form foundational institutional pillars to generate strong momentum for Vietnam’s rise in the new era and to realize the vision of a developed, high-income country by 2045. The remaining issue is execution - bringing resolutions to life.

In war, commands were strength. In peace, the rule of law and economic laws are the foundations of development. Vietnam will enter an era of national strength with transparent institutions and markets that function properly.

On behalf of the Party and the People, General Secretary To Lam has made a solemn oath: by 2045, Vietnam will be powerful, prosperous, and happy. To honor that oath, today’s generation must have the resolve to “continue boldly renewing our thinking,” press ahead with institutional reform, raise productivity, and unleash the creativity of the people and businesses.

The aspiration for national strength is entirely achievable if the country and its people follow the rules. “Vietnam’s path of development cannot be separated from global trends and the civilization of humankind,” as the General Secretary affirmed.

Related commentary referenced in the Week of Vietnam section: “The breakthrough of breakthroughs and the banner of a new era”; “Economist Le Dang Doanh: The era of rising is a turning point in national development.”