VINACHEM

Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday as investors weighed the potential for supply disruptions following a new US directive barring Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela. However, expectations of higher production from OPEC+ continued restraining the market's upward momentum.

Brent crude futures climbed 0.4% to $63.85 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 0.8% to $61.38 a barrel.

The modest gains came after a Reuters report that the Trump administration had issued a new authorisation for Chevron, allowing it to retain its assets in Venezuela but banning crude exports and any expansion of its operations.

“The loss of Chevron’s Venezuelan barrels in the US will leave refiners short and thus relying more on Middle Eastern crude,” Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon strategy at Westpac, said in a note.

Trump had revoked a previous licence on 26 February. While past licences had helped stabilise Venezuela’s sanctioned oil industry, lifting output to about a million barrels per day, the new limitations threaten that recovery.

Still, the prospect of increased supply from OPEC and its allies limited price gains. A full OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for later today, but no changes to its current output policy are expected. Instead, markets are watching for a possible decision on a July production hike when a smaller group of eight members meets on Saturday.

“Oil prices have moved only marginally in the last couple of sessions as the industry largely braces for an oversupplied second half of the year,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. She added that “OPEC members’ failure to comply with production quotas and Trump’s trade policies negatively impact global oil demand.”

Additional support for prices came after Trump suggested earlier this week that new sanctions on Russia were under consideration.

Gold

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday as dip buyers re-entered the market, though broader gains were tempered by improving US-EU trade relations. Investors are now turning their attention to key US inflation data due later this week for clues as to the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Gold futures gained 0.2% to $3,308.30 per ounce at the time of writing, while the spot gold price climbed 0.6% to $3,320.70 per ounce.

"Gold’s dip below $3,300 saw it attracting some buyers. However, the broader market is still feeling generally upbeat now that the US-EU trade tensions have eased, which is capping the extent of gold’s upside run for now,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Market participants are watching for the US's core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for April, due on Friday, which could offer fresh insight into the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. The central bank has kept its policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% since December, holding off on further tightening as it evaluates the economic impact of tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.

“If support in the $3,250–$3,280 region continues to hold, then gold is well placed for potentially another run towards $3,400 if risk appetite fades,” Waterer said. “More decisive moves in gold one way or the other may need to wait until we get a read on the Nvidia results and US core PCE on Friday.”

Pound

The pound held steady against the dollar in early European trading, as the greenback found renewed strength amid rising investor optimism that the US and the European Union could reach a trade agreement swiftly.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.1% to $99.62.

The move came after a post by Trump on his Truth Social site during North American trading hours, in which he wrote: "I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will, FINALLY, like my same demand to China, open up the European Nations for Trade with the United States of America. They will BOTH be very happy, and successful, if they do!!!"

The outlook for the dollar remains fragile, as investors struggle to predict how bilateral deals between the US and its trading partners will shape the economic outlook. Fed officials have predicted that new economic policies initiated by Trump will lead to stagflation risks in the economy, and any monetary policy adjustment would be inappropriate until the scale of the inflation increase and the weakness in economic growth can be anticipated.   – Source: Yahoo Finace –